XRP: Poised for a Wave 5 Rally Toward Historic Highs
As of March 12, 2026, technical analysis and fundamental developments are converging to paint a highly bullish picture for XRP. Analysts observing the Elliott Wave theory suggest that the digital asset is nearing the completion of its corrective Wave 4, which has established a solid support base in the $1.30 to $1.40 range. This consolidation phase is characterized by easing selling pressure across key technical indicators, hinting at a potential trend reversal that could catalyze the next major upward impulse wave. The anticipated Wave 5 rally, a core tenet of Elliott Wave theory, is projected to drive significant price appreciation. Analyst models, based on the extension patterns of previous waves, place conservative upside targets around $5.85. More optimistic projections, factoring in the scale of the potential wave structure and historical parallels, suggest a long-term target as high as $18. Such a move would represent a monumental rally from current levels and propel XRP to unprecedented valuations. This growing technical confidence is substantiated by robust fundamental progress. Ripple's global payments network continues its aggressive expansion, securing new partnerships and deepening integrations within the traditional financial infrastructure. This utility-driven adoption enhances XRP's underlying value proposition beyond speculative trading, providing a tangible use case that supports sustained demand. The combination of a technically completed correction, a clear bullish wave pattern, and strengthening fundamentals creates a compelling case for a major rally. While market volatility remains a constant, the alignment of these factors positions XRP for a potentially historic upward move in the coming period, with the $18 target representing the zenith of current analyst optimism.
XRP Poised for Wave 5 Rally, Could Reach $18
Analysts suggest XRP may be nearing the end of its corrective Wave 4, opening the door for a possible Wave 5 rally. Price action shows support around $1.30–$1.40, with technical indicators pointing to easing selling pressure and a potential trend reversal.
If the Elliott Wave structure continues to unfold, some projections place upside targets between $5.85 and $18. Growing confidence is also backed by Ripple’s expanding global payments network and increasing ecosystem adoption.
XRP Advocate Vincent Van Code Sees Long-Term Value Beyond Price Stagnation
Software engineer Vincent Van Code, a vocal XRP proponent, dismisses concerns over the token's muted price action since 2021. Having first acquired XRP at $0.50 during that year's rally, he argues the asset's technological fundamentals outweigh short-term volatility.
Van Code's bullish stance aligns with his $100-$1,000 price target—a moonshot projection that underscores the polarized sentiment surrounding Ripple's ongoing SEC lawsuit. While XRP remains 85% below its 2018 peak, true believers point to its institutional settlement utility as a latent catalyst.
XRP ETF Launch Sparks Market Speculation
The imminent debut of the Kurv XRP Enhanced Income ETF marks a pivotal moment for institutional crypto adoption. Scheduled for March 2026 launch, this SEC-filed product opens traditional brokerage access to XRP exposure without direct cryptocurrency ownership—a structural innovation mirroring Bitcoin ETF precedents.
Market momentum appears favorable, with XRP investment products attracting $19M in weekly inflows and $153M year-to-date. The $1.1B AUM milestone suggests growing institutional comfort, though XRP's current $1.39 price reflects muted response—down 1% intraday against $2.6B daily volume.
Deflationary tokenomics (61.2B/100B circulating supply) and centralized exchange dominance shape trading dynamics. All eyes watch whether ETF approval can propel XRP toward retesting its $3.84 all-time high, last seen in January.
XRP Price Faces Market Paradox as 60% Supply Sits Underwater While Derivatives Activity Climbs
XRP's market dynamics present a striking contradiction. Nearly 60% of its circulating supply—approximately 36.8 billion tokens—is currently held at a loss, according to Glassnode data. This level of underwater holdings surpasses even the depths seen during the COVID market crash, China's crypto ban, and the FTX collapse.
Meanwhile, derivatives traders are displaying renewed appetite for leveraged positions, creating a rare scenario where bearish on-chain metrics coincide with speculative trading activity. Such supply-in-loss clusters historically create psychological pressure, often leading to either capitulation or diamond-handed waiting games.
The tension between these forces suggests potential volatility ahead. Any price recovery could trigger sell pressure as underwater holders rush to exit at break-even levels—a dynamic analysts watch closely when modeling XRP's price trajectory.
Wall Street Banks Challenge Federal Crypto Charters As Regulatory Battle Escalates
Traditional U.S. banks are intensifying their opposition to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's (OCC) expansion of federal trust charters for crypto firms. The move, which would allow companies like Circle and Ripple to operate nationwide under a unified framework, is seen as a potential disruptor to the competitive landscape of digital finance.
Circle, issuer of the USD Coin stablecoin, and Ripple, known for its blockchain-based payment solutions, argue that federal charters would streamline their operations across all fifty states. The banks, however, warn of regulatory disparities and systemic risks.
Ripple Pushes for Australian License Through BC Payments Purchase
Ripple Labs is poised to secure an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) via its acquisition of BC Payments, a deal finalized on April 1. The move significantly bolsters Ripple's presence in Australia, where it already facilitates rapid cross-border remittances for enterprise clients.
Fiona Murray, Ripple's Asia-Pacific VP, notes the license will fuel regional expansion—payment volumes there nearly doubled in 2025. Key partnerships with Hai Ha Money Transfer and Caleb & Brown have driven this growth.
The development follows Ripple's conditional approval for a US trust charter and operational licenses in the EU and UK. Today marks the US debut of its XRP Income ETF, with Japan slated for the RLUSD stablecoin launch. Australian operations will soon unveil findings from Project Acacia, exploring blockchain integration frameworks.
